Daily Market Trend Guide -- Tuesday, November 29, 2011 (Published in the Morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                          November 29, 2011

The Markets yesterday a saw a gap up opening on back of OVERSOLD technicals and very positive global cues as it extended its opening gains 2.5 fold and ended the day on a robust note at 4851.30, posting a strong gain of 141.25 points or 3% and thus formed a sharply higher top and higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

The biggest concern yesterday has been the volumes that were much below average and they will continue to remain a concern today.

Technically speaking, since the Markets have ended the day yesterday near the high point of the day, it should continue with its up move today, at least in the initial session, but as said above, lack of volumes will remain a concern.

For today, expect the Markets to open on a flat and look for directions. The Markets have hold good the support of 4720 and have also managed to move past the levels of 4780-4820 and have thus entered successfully into the broad trading range of 4780-4820 on the lower side and 5270 on the upper side.

Today, with flat opening expected, the intraday trajectory would remain crucial and in any kind of correction seen, the Markets will have to remain above the levels of 4820 in order to avoid slipping into weakness again. For today, the levels of 4880 and 4935 shall act as resistance and the levels of 4820 and 4780 are likely to act as supports.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 41.82 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swings. The Daily MACD continues to trade below its signal line.

With all lead indicators in place and with all stocks and Nifty showing overall minor addition in total Open Interest, the technicals point towards continuation of up move, however, some consolidation and sideward movements cannot be ruled out. There are also chances that some mild profit taking may be seen, but at the same time, the up move is likely to continue.

All and all, stock specific activities shall be seen. Selective purchases may be seen while vigilantly protecting profits at higher levels. Overall, positive outlook is advised for the day.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91=98250-16331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com

Daily Market Trend Guide -- Monday, November 28, 2011 (Published in the Morning before the Markets opened)

MARKET TREND FOR TODAY                                             November 28, 2011

We had categorically mentioned in our Friday’s edition of Daily Market Trend Guide that the levels of 4780 would be critical as the Markets will have to move past them in order to re-enter the broad trading range and avoid further weakness. Also, along with that we had mentioned that the levels of 4720 would be equally critical and the markets will have to ensure that it trades above that to avoid weakness. The Markets did so for the most of the trading session, but finally ended the day notch below it at 4710.05 ending the day with loss of 46.40 points. With this, the Markets ended the week with net loss of 195.75 points or 4% and in the process formed a Similar Top but higher bottom on the Daily High Low Charts.

Technically speaking, it would be critical for the Markets to open above 4720 to avoid any weakness. This is likely as Friday’s session witnessed very low volumes relatively and today’s with the global scenario remaining positive, we are likely to see a positive opening today.

Thus, expect the Markets to open on a positive note today and look for directions. For today, the levels of 4720 and 4680 shall act as support on the lower side and on the upper side, the levels of 4780 shall continue to act as immediate resistance. As mentioned on Friday, the markets will have to move past the levels of 4780 in order to avoid any weakness.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index on the Daily Chart is 30.9593 and is neutral as it shows no negative divergence or failure swing. But it has move out of its Oversold range and thus, this is bullish. The Daily MACD still continues to trade below its signal line.

On the Weekly Charts, the RSI is 37.2604 and it does not show any failure swing. However, NIFTY has set a new 14-week low but the RSI has not and this is BULLISH Divergence. The Weekly MACD on the other had has reported a bearish signal as it has given a negative crossover and now trades below its signal line.

Given the above reading, it is extremely critical for the Markets to, firstly, maintain the levels above of 4720 to avoid any kind of further weakness. Secondly, it will have to move past the levels of 4780 so that it is able to move back into the broad trading range and this would mean that the Markets are under no negative breach as on immediate basis.

Thus, until this happens, we are likely to see volatile movements in the range of 4720-4780 and the intraday trajectory would be crucial. However, given the lead indicators, the bias remains positive. Over all, cautious optimism is advised for today.

Milan Vaishnav,
Consulting Technical Analyst,
www.MyMoneyPlant.co.in    
http://milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91-98250-16331
milanvaishnav@mymoneyplant.co.in
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com